Diagnosing Nigeria’s Growth Constraints

Guest blog by Adamu Mathias, LEG ’25

Over the weeks, this course has reshaped not only how I approach complex national/regional/local or organizational challenges but also how I think about their development, especially Nigeria’s ongoing struggle to diversify, grow sustainably, and build systems that work. As someone deeply involved in leadership, energy, and development spaces, I found PDIA to be more than a framework, it’s a new way of seeing and responding to problems. 

Before the course, I often approached big problems including those at the national level with the hope of finding the “right” policy or the “perfect” reform strategy. PDIA challenged that assumption. 

I learned that real-world issues especially ones like Nigeria’s economic stagnation are not technical puzzles with straightforward fixes. They are complex, systemic, political, and adaptive. PDIA offers a structured way of navigating them through: 

1. Problem-driven analysis, not solution-driven assumptions 

2. Iterative experimentation, not rigid master plans 

3. Learning loops, instead of linear expectations 

4. Team-driven leadership, not isolated expertise 

These principles transformed the way I think about development work. 

Applying PDIA to My Growth Challenge: Nigeria’s Economic Diversification Problem 

A central part of the course was choosing a “growth challenge.” For me, this was clear: Nigeria’s persistent economic dependence on crude oil and the resulting structural vulnerabilities. 

Nigeria’s economic growth challenge is an interconnected web of constraints: 

1. Overdependence on crude oil as the main revenue and export source 

2. Weak infrastructure (power, transport, logistics) 

3. Limited access to finance for SMEs and emerging industries 

4. Governance and institutional inefficiencies 

5. Inadequate workforce skills and low productivity 

6. Underdeveloped industrial and manufacturing capacity 

PDIA helped me break this huge issue into smaller, more actionable components. Before this course, I tended to view Nigeria’s diversification challenge in broad macroeconomic terms. But through tools like the fishbone diagram, 5 Whys, and capability stripping, I uncovered underlying dynamics: 

1. Why is industrial capacity low? 

2. Why do institutions fail to enforce reforms? 

3. Why are SMEs unable to scale? 

4. Why does oil dependency persist despite decades of reform attempts? 

Each “why” revealed new layers—political incentives, implementation gaps, corruption networks, infrastructure deficits, and capability failures within public agencies. 

PDIA doesn’t promise quick solutions, but it offers something more valuable: Clarity, direction, and achievable entry points for change. 

My Personal Learning Journey 

This course forced me to sit with complexity, iterate slowly, and learn deeply. Over the weeks, I experienced several breakthroughs: 

1. I realized my growth challenge was initially too broad. PDIA taught me to narrow the problem, identify sub-causes, and look for feasible yet meaningful starting points. 

2. I learned that development is about “small bets,” not grand reforms. Nigeria’s diversification cannot come from a single policy announcement—it must emerge from many small, iterative actions across multiple sectors and teams. 

3. I discovered the power of distributed leadership. Real change requires coalitions—entrepreneurs, policymakers, civil servants, investors, and communities. No single actor can reform an entire system. 

4. I became more comfortable with uncertainty. PDIA taught me that learning from failure is not a setback—it’s part of the process. 

These insights reshaped both my personal leadership approach and my understanding of Nigeria’s development pathways. 

What I Will Take Forward Professionally and Nationally 

This course arrived at the perfect time for me, after completing my doctorate in Business Management with focus in Energy and organizational leadership and while working in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector. PDIA now influences how I approach: Organizational Decision-Making 

I now dissect problems more thoroughly, avoid rushing into solutions, and prioritize iterative experiments. 

Policy and National Development Thinking 

I plan to apply PDIA in the following ways: 

1. ESG framework strengthening in the energy sector 

2. Supporting diversification strategies in manufacturing, renewables, and agriculture 

3. Working with organizations to understand root causes before designing reforms 

4. Advising on workforce development using adaptive, skill-based approaches 

Academic and Research Work 

My dissertation on job satisfaction, work-life balance, and intent to quit aligns with PDIA’s emphasis on underlying systemic drivers rather than surface-level symptoms. 

Future Postdoctoral Engagements 

When conducting research or community-based development work, I will use PDIA to build learning loops, engage stakeholders, and test ideas iteratively. 

How PDIA Can Help Nigeria Break Its Oil Dependency 

One of my biggest reflections is that PDIA offers a pathway for Nigeria to confront its economic stagnation more effectively. Instead of trying to “jump” into diversification, PDIA suggests: 

1. Deconstruct the real constraints sector by sector 

2. Build small coalitions around realistic reforms 

3. Test small-scale industrialization pilots 

4. Learn from failure and adapt 

5. Strengthen institutions gradually rather than attempting sweeping overhauls 

6. Engage local problem solvers, not just top-down directives 

Nigeria’s path to inclusive economic growth is not a one-off policy—it’s a long series of adaptive steps. PDIA provides a blueprint for that journey. 

Open Questions I Hope Future Courses Address 

1. How can PDIA be institutionalized inside Nigerian government agencies? 

2. What political strategies help sustain authorizer buy-in for adaptive reforms? 

3. How can PDIA be scaled to support national diversification programs? 

4. How can we measure PDIA effectiveness in fragile or complex contexts like Nigeria? 

Understanding these would elevate PDIA from a methodology to a nationwide movement. 

A Creative, Reflective Learning Experience 

One of the most rewarding aspects of this course was the opportunity to engage creatively with diagnostic tools and visual artifacts that brought PDIA to life. Rather than simply reading about complex problems, I was able to visualize, map, and deconstruct them using fishbone diagrams, iteration logs, stakeholder maps, and real-time analytical exercises. These artifacts made the learning experience deeply practical and helped me internalize PDIA as a mindset—not just a method. 

As part of my National Growth Challenge, I applied these tools to Nigeria’s longstanding economic dilemma: its structural dependence on crude oil and the binding constraints that prevent diversification. Using the fishbone and problem-tree approaches, I mapped constraints including unreliable electricity/energy, weak infrastructure, policy inconsistency, limited access to finance, weak institutions, low industrial capacity and a very low institutional bandwidth. That analysis is represented in the binding constraints diagram below, which I developed as part of my PDIA iterations: 

Nigeria’s Growth Problem: Binding Constraints 

This exercise helped me see that Nigeria’s economic stagnation is not caused by a single factor but by a network of interconnected failures spanning human capital, governance systems, infrastructure, and industrial ecosystem challenges. The process of visually breaking these issues apart made the complexity more manageable and revealed actionable entry points—an essential benefit of PDIA. 

Additionally, learning from the Growth Lab’s session on ”How do we analyze inclusive growth?” further sharpened my understanding of inequality as a multidimensional constraint. The screenshot below, taken during the session, shows how factors like region, education, gender, and ethnic identity create layers of exclusion that shape economic outcomes. This framework helped me link Nigeria’s growth constraints to its broader social inequalities and appreciate the structural nature of the problem: 

These visual tools, paired with weekly reflections, problem deconstruction, and iteration loops—made the learning experience genuinely transformative. They helped me see growth not as a technical policy issue but as a dynamic, adaptive challenge that requires continuous learning, experimentation, and collaboration. 

If this blog is selected for publication, I would be pleased to share additional artifacts, including: 

1. My fishbone diagrams illustrating Nigeria’s diversification problem 

2. Weekly PDIA iteration logs and reflection notes 

3. Stakeholder engagement maps 

4. Images from meetings and workshops where I discussed PDIA insights 

5. Visual summaries of constraints and reform entry points 

These materials reflect the depth of my engagement with the course and how PDIA reshaped my thinking about leadership, national development, and adaptive problem-solving. 

I look forward to continuing this journey, learning, experimenting, and contributing to Nigeria’s path toward inclusive, diversified, and sustainable growth. PDIA has changed not just how I approach problems, but how I think about development itself. 

This is a blog series written by the alumni of the Leading Economic Growth Executive Education Program at the Harvard Kennedy School. 63 Participants  successfully completed this 10-week online course in December 2025. These are their learning  journey  stories.